Regional Economic Outlook 2014

Regional respondents to June’s Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey were generally optimistic when asked about their expected personal financial situation in the next year. However, they were generally pessimistic when asked if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. Regional respondents were pessimistic about general business conditions over the next year and next five years, as more respondents reported they expect poor economic conditions over that time period. Regional respondents were optimistic about buying conditions in the next six months. Overall, regional respondents were far more pessimistic about the future economic conditions than they were about current status. The Current Conditions Index is 78.7, while the Consumer Expectations Index is 66.7.

Arkansas

Arkansans were pessimistic when asked if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. They were far more optimistic when asked about the expected financial situation in a year. Respondents were pessimistic about general business conditions over the next year and the next five years. Respondents were optimistic about buying conditions in the next six months. Overall, Arkansans were more pessimistic about the future economic conditions than they were about current status. The Current Conditions Index is 74.7, while the Consumer Expectations Index is 62.7.

Missouri

Missourians were pessimistic when asked if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. They were generally more optimistic when asked about the expected financial situation in a year. Survey respondents also were more pessimistic about general business conditions over the next year and next five years. Respondents were optimistic about buying conditions in the next six months. Overall, Missourians were more pessimistic about the future economic conditions than they were about current status. The Current Conditions Index is 77.6, while the Consumer Expectations Index is 62.9.

Oklahoma

Oklahomans were somewhat pessimistic when asked if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. They were generally more optimistic when asked about the expected financial situation in a year. Survey respondents were more pessimistic about general business conditions over the next year and next five years. Respondents also were optimistic about buying conditions in the next six months. Overall, Oklahomans were more pessimistic about the future economic conditions than they were about current status. Overall, Oklahoma consumers’ expectations about both the current and expected financial situation, as well as future business conditions, were more positive than expectations in Missouri and Arkansas. Oklahoma’s Current Conditions Index is 82.2, while the Consumer Expectations Index is 72.6.

Current Financial Situation Compared with a Year Ago

Better Off Same Worse Off Responses Index Score
Regional 17% 55% 28% 1,171 89.0
Arkansas 18% 52% 31% 393 87.0
Missouri 16% 54% 31% 388 85.0
Oklahoma 19% 57% 25% 390 94.0

 Expected Change in Financial Situation in a Year

Better Off Same Worse Off Responses Index Score
Regional 27% 51% 22% 1,122 106.0
Arkansas 28% 52% 20% 372 109.0
Missouri 19% 53% 27% 373 92.0
Oklahoma 34% 48% 18% 377 115.0

Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year

Good Times Uncertain Bad Times Responses Index Score
Regional 29% 22% 49% 1,060 79.0
Arkansas 22% 25% 53% 354 69.0
Missouri 30% 18% 52% 353 79.0
Oklahoma 32% 23% 45% 353 87.0

Expected Change in Business Conditions in 5 Years

Continuous Good Times Widespread Unemployment Other Responses Index Score
Regional 37% 56% 7% 1,111 81.0
Arkansas 33% 61% 6% 367 73.0
Missouri 36% 57% 8% 372 79.0
Oklahoma 41% 53% 6% 372 88.0

Buying Conditions

Good Times Mixed –
Good & Bad
Bad Times Responses Index Score
Regional 47% 20% 33% 1,069 113.0
Arkansas 42% 21% 37% 351 105.0
Missouri 46% 22% 32% 355 114.0
Oklahoma 49% 19% 32% 363 118.0

Note: Percentages may not equal 100 because of rounding to nearest whole number within the report.

 

Personal Finances Business Conditions Buying Conditions Current Conditions Index Consumer Expectations Index
June 2014 Current Expected 12 months 5 years
Regional 89.0 106.0 79.0 81.0 113.0 78.7 66.7
Arkansas 87.0 109.0 69.0 73.0 105.0 74.7 62.7
Missouri 85.0 92.0 79.0 79.0 114.0 77.6 62.9
Oklahoma 94.0 115.0 87.0 88.0 118.0 82.2 72.6

 

Data released as part of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey, summary and news releases is free for broadcast, publication or use in presentations. Please cite “Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey” as the source each time information is referenced.