Regional Economic Outlook 2014
Regional respondents to June’s Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey were generally optimistic when asked about their expected personal financial situation in the next year. However, they were generally pessimistic when asked if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. Regional respondents were pessimistic about general business conditions over the next year and next five years, as more respondents reported they expect poor economic conditions over that time period. Regional respondents were optimistic about buying conditions in the next six months. Overall, regional respondents were far more pessimistic about the future economic conditions than they were about current status. The Current Conditions Index is 78.7, while the Consumer Expectations Index is 66.7.
Arkansas
Arkansans were pessimistic when asked if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. They were far more optimistic when asked about the expected financial situation in a year. Respondents were pessimistic about general business conditions over the next year and the next five years. Respondents were optimistic about buying conditions in the next six months. Overall, Arkansans were more pessimistic about the future economic conditions than they were about current status. The Current Conditions Index is 74.7, while the Consumer Expectations Index is 62.7.
Missouri
Missourians were pessimistic when asked if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. They were generally more optimistic when asked about the expected financial situation in a year. Survey respondents also were more pessimistic about general business conditions over the next year and next five years. Respondents were optimistic about buying conditions in the next six months. Overall, Missourians were more pessimistic about the future economic conditions than they were about current status. The Current Conditions Index is 77.6, while the Consumer Expectations Index is 62.9.
Oklahoma
Oklahomans were somewhat pessimistic when asked if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. They were generally more optimistic when asked about the expected financial situation in a year. Survey respondents were more pessimistic about general business conditions over the next year and next five years. Respondents also were optimistic about buying conditions in the next six months. Overall, Oklahomans were more pessimistic about the future economic conditions than they were about current status. Overall, Oklahoma consumers’ expectations about both the current and expected financial situation, as well as future business conditions, were more positive than expectations in Missouri and Arkansas. Oklahoma’s Current Conditions Index is 82.2, while the Consumer Expectations Index is 72.6.
Current Financial Situation Compared with a Year Ago
| Better Off | Same | Worse Off | Responses | Index Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 17% | 55% | 28% | 1,171 | 89.0 |
| Arkansas | 18% | 52% | 31% | 393 | 87.0 |
| Missouri | 16% | 54% | 31% | 388 | 85.0 |
| Oklahoma | 19% | 57% | 25% | 390 | 94.0 |
Expected Change in Financial Situation in a Year
| Better Off | Same | Worse Off | Responses | Index Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 27% | 51% | 22% | 1,122 | 106.0 | |
| Arkansas | 28% | 52% | 20% | 372 | 109.0 | |
| Missouri | 19% | 53% | 27% | 373 | 92.0 | |
| Oklahoma | 34% | 48% | 18% | 377 | 115.0 | |
Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year
| Good Times | Uncertain | Bad Times | Responses | Index Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 29% | 22% | 49% | 1,060 | 79.0 |
| Arkansas | 22% | 25% | 53% | 354 | 69.0 |
| Missouri | 30% | 18% | 52% | 353 | 79.0 |
| Oklahoma | 32% | 23% | 45% | 353 | 87.0 |
Expected Change in Business Conditions in 5 Years
| Continuous Good Times | Widespread Unemployment | Other | Responses | Index Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 37% | 56% | 7% | 1,111 | 81.0 |
| Arkansas | 33% | 61% | 6% | 367 | 73.0 |
| Missouri | 36% | 57% | 8% | 372 | 79.0 |
| Oklahoma | 41% | 53% | 6% | 372 | 88.0 |
Buying Conditions
| Good Times | Mixed – Good & Bad |
Bad Times | Responses | Index Score | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 47% | 20% | 33% | 1,069 | 113.0 | |
| Arkansas | 42% | 21% | 37% | 351 | 105.0 | |
| Missouri | 46% | 22% | 32% | 355 | 114.0 | |
| Oklahoma | 49% | 19% | 32% | 363 | 118.0 | |
Note: Percentages may not equal 100 because of rounding to nearest whole number within the report.
| Personal Finances | Business Conditions | Buying Conditions | Current Conditions Index | Consumer Expectations Index | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 2014 | Current | Expected | 12 months | 5 years | |||
| Regional | 89.0 | 106.0 | 79.0 | 81.0 | 113.0 | 78.7 | 66.7 |
| Arkansas | 87.0 | 109.0 | 69.0 | 73.0 | 105.0 | 74.7 | 62.7 |
| Missouri | 85.0 | 92.0 | 79.0 | 79.0 | 114.0 | 77.6 | 62.9 |
| Oklahoma | 94.0 | 115.0 | 87.0 | 88.0 | 118.0 | 82.2 | 72.6 |
Data released as part of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey, summary and news releases is free for broadcast, publication or use in presentations. Please cite “Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey” as the source each time information is referenced.