The Index

The Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index is based on the methodology developed by the University of Michigan for its national-level Index of Consumer Sentiment. It is based on five questions that evaluate consumer perceptions about their current and future finances, current and future business conditions, plans to purchase major household items, current level of consumer debt, current and planned savings and demographic information. Surveyors were able to collect these perceptions using telephone surveys conducted in May and June 2014.

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June 2014 Index
National 82.5
Regional 71.4
Arkansas 67.4
Missouri 68.6
Oklahoma 76.4

Arkansas

The Arkansas state economy has demonstrated contradictory economic performance during the first half of 2014, much like the national economy. Declines in the unemployment rate, usually considered positive overall, can be accounted for by declines in the labor force, which is not positive news, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The level of non-farm employment was at its highest point since the onset of the Great Recession, but it was still more than 16,000 jobs below the peak. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that state personal income levels have grown faster than the national average since 2000 but declined at the end of 2013 and beginning of 2014 due to declines in farm income.

Missouri

The Missouri state economy continues to show improvement but at a very slow rate when compared to the rest of the country. Employment stands at 3.216 million, still below its peak of 3.305 in December of 2006 but up from the low of 3.105 million in December 2009, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment levels today are identical to the employment levels that existed in December 1999. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that state personal income levels have increased 2.6 percent since the end of the recession, which translates to real personal income growth of 0.52 percent per annum.

Oklahoma

Oklahoma, like most of the country, has seen slow economic recovery from the recession in June 2009. During the recession, non-farm employment dropped to 1.54 million in January 2010 and has grown to 1.66 million in May 2014, eclipsing the pre-recession peak of 1.623 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Employment growth has been uneven geographically, with the Oklahoma City metro area growing by 10.6 percent, while the Tulsa metro area grew at 6.83 percent, less than the state average. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reports that state personal income levels have grown faster than the national average, increasing by 95 percent to $165 billion since 2000.

Index by Income

All Families Families Under $75,000 Families Over $75,000
Regional 71.4 68.5 82.6
Arkansas 67.4 62.6 82.2
Missouri 68.6 59.2 79.8
Oklahoma 76.4 66.9 81.8

Index by Age Subgroup

Age 18-24 Age 25-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+
Regional 73.3 78.3 69.3 63.4
Arkansas 54.8 73.9 68.1 62.3
Missouri 63.5 78.3 68.5 60.3
Oklahoma 91.9 82.0 71.2 67.8

Index by Educational Attainment

High School or Less Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Degree
Regional 64.0 76.1 85.3
Arkansas 60.8 60.8 81.7
Missouri 58.2 72.8 84.0
Oklahoma 64.8 78.3 76.8

Index by Presence of Children in the Home

Children No Children
Regional 69.5 69.9
Arkansas 69.5 66.4
Missouri 69.6 65.8
Oklahoma 81.9 69.4

Index by Employment Status

Employed Unemployed Not In Labor Force
Regional 74.2 61.3 63.8
Arkansas 71.8 57.3 62.8
Missouri 76.6 71.7 59.6
Oklahoma 78.9 68.0 67.3

Index by Homeownership Status

Own Home Rent
Regional 71.1 69.8
Arkansas 66.1 68.6
Missouri 68.1 61.6
Oklahoma 72.4 75.6

Data released as part of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey, summary and news releases is free for broadcast, publication or use in presentations. Please cite “Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey” as the source each time information is referenced.