The Index
The Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index is based on the methodology developed by the University of Michigan for its national-level Index of Consumer Sentiment. It is based on five questions that evaluate consumer perceptions about their current and future finances, current and future business conditions, plans to purchase major household items, current level of consumer debt, current and planned savings and demographic information. Surveyors were able to collect these perceptions using telephone surveys conducted in September and October 2014.
| 2014 | National | Regional | Arkansas | Missouri | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June Index | 82.5 | 71.4 | 67.4 | 68.6 | 76.4 |
| October Index | 86.9 | 72.6 | 68.1 | 77.4 | 72.6 |
Arkansas
Arkansas consumers were slightly more optimistic about the economy in October than they were in the June survey. Although unemployment rates were improving, the labor force was shrinking and personal income growth was stagnant in the middle of 2014. Families with incomes more than $75,000 were significantly more confident about the current and future state of the economy than families with incomes less than $75,000.
Missouri
Missouri consumers were significantly more positive about the current state of the economy in October than they were in June, particularly those families making more than $75,000. Even though employment is still below its peak and income growth in Missouri has been subpar, the past few months have seen some relatively strong employment growth, which led consumers to have some renewed confidence in some areas about the Missouri economy.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma consumers were slightly less optimistic in October about the current state of the economy than they were in June. Families with incomes more than $75,000 were significantly more positive about the current and future economy than families with incomes less than $75,000. Both groups were less positive about the economy in October than they were in June. Sentiment was down across nearly all segments with drops especially pronounced in older and lower-income households, while sentiment held steady or was up modestly among the highest-educated households. The decrease in sentiment is attributable to considerable pessimism about future conditions even as current conditions remain positive.
Index by Income
| All Families | Families Under $75,000 | Families Over $75,000 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 72.6 | 67.6 | 85.5 |
| Arkansas | 68.1 | 61.8 | 71.9 |
| Missouri | 77.4 | 65.3 | 87.3 |
| Oklahoma | 72.6 | 64.7 | 78.7 |
Index by Age Subgroup
| Age 18-24 | Age 25-44 | Age 45-64 | Age 65+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 89.7 | 79.2 | 64.1 | 64.4 |
| Arkansas | 92.4 | 74.8 | 61.1 | 56.7 |
| Missouri | 93.9 | 85.6 | 66.3 | 70.0 |
| Oklahoma | 83.7 | 77.7 | 64.7 | 67.6 |
Index by Educational Attainment
| High School or Less | Bachelor’s Degree | Graduate Degree | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 63.3 | 83.6 | 85.9 |
| Arkansas | 57.4 | 74.5 | 75.9 |
| Missouri | 61.2 | 76.8 | 87.0 |
| Oklahoma | 61.5 | 77.4 | 83.6 |
Index by Presence of Children in the Home
| Children | No Children | |
|---|---|---|
| Regional | 72.5 | 71.4 |
| Arkansas | 72.9 | 59.7 |
| Missouri | 80.0 | 69.9 |
| Oklahoma | 72.0 | 68.4 |
Index by Employment Status
| Employed | Unemployed | Not In Labor Force | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 75.8 | 56.4 | 70.5 |
| Arkansas | 67.7 | 66.5 | 60.1 |
| Missouri | 77.6 | 59.1 | 69.3 |
| Oklahoma | 77.7 | NA | 61.7 |
Index by Homeownership Status
| Own Home | Rent | |
|---|---|---|
| Regional | 73.4 | 67.3 |
| Arkansas | 62.6 | 66.0 |
| Missouri | 72.2 | 74.8 |
| Oklahoma | 69.8 | 67.9 |
*Note: NA – A smaller sample size for the category prevented economists from reaching statistical validity with this data point.
Data released as part of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey, summary and news releases is free for broadcast, publication or use in presentations. Please cite “Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey” as the source each time information is referenced.