The Index

The Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index is based on methodology developed by the University of Michigan for its national-level Index of Consumer Sentiment. It is based on five questions that evaluate consumer perceptions about their current and future finances, current and future business conditions, plans to purchase major household items, current level of consumer debt, current and planned savings, and demographic information. Researchers collected these perceptions using telephone surveys conducted in March 2015.

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Index National Regional Arkansas Missouri Oklahoma
June 2014 82.5 71.4 67.4 68.6 76.4
October 2014 86.9 72.6 68.1 77.4 72.6
March 2015 85.3 83.2 79.1 85.2 84.8


Arkansas consumer sentiment jumped dramatically from October 2014 to March 2015. Like consumers nationwide, Arkansas residents enjoyed declining gasoline prices at the pump, increasing employment and slowly rising incomes in the past year. The improved readings on components of consumer sentiment in Arkansas were consistent with the positive economic data that have been reported. As unemployment rates were improving, the labor force was growing again and personal income growth was noticeable at the end of 2014.


Missouri consumer sentiment was the highest of the region at 85.2, just short of the national level of 85.3. In the past, Missouri consumers showed an overabundance of caution towards the economy but are now moving towards a more optimistic opinion than the rest of the region. Employment in the Missouri economy has finally surpassed its previous peak and the past several months Missouri has seen very strong job growth. Wage growth continues to be subpar and is an area of concern, but it seems that, for now, the job growth and lower oil prices are boosting consumers’ spirits in Missouri.


Oklahoma consumer sentiment improved more than the other states in March, even as the state’s primary industry adjusted to low and volatile crude oil prices. Oklahoma experienced the largest increase in consumer sentiment in March, with the sentiment index improving to 84.8 from the 72.6 October 2014 reading. Time will tell if consumer confidence and broad economic health in the state can offset forthcoming weakness in the state’s oil and gas industry. Employment in non-farm and private sectors managed to hold early gains in 2015 but the oil and gas sector lost 2,500 jobs so far this year.

Index by Income

All Families Families Under $75,000 Families Over $75,000
Regional 83.2 79.1 93.9
Arkansas 79.1 71.4 86.8
Missouri 85.2 76.9 98.3
Oklahoma 84.8 79.7 86.4

Index by Age Subgroup

Age 18-24 Age 25-44 Age 45-64 Age 65+
Regional 95.7 86.7 80.4 74.0
Arkansas 113.0 91.4 79.8 65.0
Missouri 87.2 91.6 82.7 77.2
Oklahoma 106.8 87.1 78.7 81.6

Index by Educational Attainment

High School or Less Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Degree
Regional 75.3 84.8 91.2
Arkansas 72.1 80.5 87.9
Missouri 67.1 89.7 95.4
Oklahoma 80.9 78.0 84.0

Index by Presence of Children in the Home

Children No Children
Regional 79.5 84.4
Arkansas 79.2 92.9
Missouri 82.1 83.3
Oklahoma 83.5 80.5

Index by Employment Status

Employed Unemployed Not In Labor Force
Regional 85.3 81.3 79.3
Arkansas 81.3 90.8 70.7
Missouri 86.3 78.5 79.1
Oklahoma 84.5 85.9 76.8

Index by Homeownership Status

Own Home Rent
Regional 81.8 86.1
Arkansas 76.3 78.9
Missouri 83.0 82.5
Oklahoma 76.9 97.6


Data released as part of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey, summary and news releases is free for broadcast, publication or use in presentations. Please cite “Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey” as the source each time information is referenced.