FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – This section of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey deals with determining the expectations and attitudes of consumers toward current and future personal finances, general business conditions and buying conditions. Data from those questions is tabulated into the Current Conditions Sub-Index and the Consumer Expectations Sub-Index.
Regional Economic Outlook
Respondents were more positive when asked in August if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index increased from 96.0 in March to 99.0 in August. They were also slightly more optimistic about the expected financial situation in a year, as indicated by an index of 127.0, than when they were asked in March, when the index was 126.0. The survey respondents were more optimistic both about the prospects for general business conditions over the next year and about conditions over the next five years than in March. This optimism is reflected in the index of 102.0 for business conditions in a year and 101.0 for business conditions over the next five years. Respondents remained quite positive about buying conditions in the next six months, as reflected by the index of 136.0. Overall, regional respondents were moderately more optimistic in August about the future economic conditions than they were in March. The current conditions index increased from 90.3 to 91.0 and the consumer expectations index increased from 78.9 to 82.1.
Arkansas
Respondents were more optimistic when asked in August if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index rose from 96.0 in March to 99.0 in August. They were also more optimistic about their expected financial situation in a year than they were in March, indicated by an increase in the index from 128.0 to 131.0. The survey respondents were more positive about general business conditions over the next year and about general business conditions in the next five years. The positive responses are reflected in the August index of 104.0 for business conditions in a year and 98.0 in five years. Respondents remained optimistic about buying conditions in the next six months; the index remained unchanged at 140.0. Overall, Arkansas respondents were more optimistic in August about the future economic conditions than they were in March and they were also more optimistic about their current status. The current conditions index increased to 92.4 in August, while the consumer expectations index increased to 83.0.
Missouri
Respondents were much more optimistic when asked in August if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index increased from 97.0 in March to 105.0 in August. They were, however, less optimistic about their expected financial situation in a year than they were in March, indicated by a decrease in the index from 127.0 to 122.0. Respondents expressed optimism about the outlook for general business conditions over the next year and next five years. This was reflected in the August index reading of 110.0 for business conditions in a year and 106.0 for business conditions over the next five years. Respondents expressed more optimistic sentiment about buying conditions in the next six months as indicated by an index of 141.0. Missouri respondents were more optimistic in August about current conditions and future economic conditions. The current condition index increased to 95.0 and the consumer expectations index increased to 84.0.
Oklahoma
Respondents were less positive when asked in August if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index declined from 95.0 in March to 94.0 in August. They were, however, more optimistic about their expected financial situation in a year than they were in March, indicated by an increase in the index from 125.0 to 128.0. Respondents were less optimistic in their sentiment about the outlook for general business conditions over the next year, indicated by an index of 91.0, but much more optimistic about the outlook for the next five years as indicated by an index of 100.0. Respondents were less positive about buying conditions in the next six months as reflected by the index of 127.0. Overall, respondents from Oklahoma were more pessimistic about their current status and more optimistic about future economic conditions in August. The current conditions index decreased to 85.7 while the consumer expectations index increased to 79.7.
Personal Financial Situation Compared with a Year Ago
| Better Off | Same | Worse Off | Responses | Index Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 23% | 53% | 24% | 1,292 | 99.0 |
| Arkansas | 23% | 53% | 24% | 450 | 99.0 |
| Missouri | 27% | 50% | 22% | 412 | 105.0 |
| Oklahoma | 19% | 56% | 25% | 430 | 94.0 |
Expected Change in Financial Situation in a Year
| Better Off | Same | Worse Off | Responses | Index Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 40% | 47% | 13% | 1,203 | 127.0 |
| Arkansas | 42% | 46% | 12% | 422 | 131.0 |
| Missouri | 38% | 45% | 17% | 382 | 122.0 |
| Oklahoma | 40% | 48% | 12% | 399 | 128.0 |
Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year
| Good Times | Uncertain | Bad Times | Responses | Index Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 32% | 37% | 30% | 1,155 | 102.0 |
| Arkansas | 31% | 41% | 27% | 401 | 104.0 |
| Missouri | 38% | 34% | 28% | 369 | 110.0 |
| Oklahoma | 27% | 37% | 36% | 385 | 91.0 |
Expected Change in Business Conditions in 5 Years
| Continuous Good Times |
Widespread Unemployment |
Other | Responses | Index Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 43% | 41% | 16% | 1,171 | 101.0 |
| Arkansas | 42% | 44% | 14% | 412 | 98.0 |
| Missouri | 44% | 38% | 18% | 384 | 106.0 |
| Oklahoma | 43% | 42% | 15% | 394 | 100.0 |
Buying Conditions in Next Six Months
| Good Times | Mixed – Good & Bad |
Bad Times | Responses | Index Score | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 55% | 26% | 19% | 1,167 | 136.0 |
| Arkansas | 57% | 26% | 17% | 410 | 140.0 |
| Missouri | 58% | 24% | 17% | 381 | 141.0 |
| Oklahoma | 49% | 29% | 22% | 397 | 127.0 |
| Personal Finances Sub Index |
Business Conditions Sub Index |
Buying Conditions Sub Index |
Current Conditions Sub Index |
Consumer Expectations Sub Index |
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | Current | Expected | 12 Months | 5 Years | |||
| Regional | 99.0 | 127.0 | 102.0 | 101.0 | 136.0 | 91.0 | 82.1 |
| Arkansas | 99.0 | 131.0 | 104.0 | 98.0 | 140.0 | 92.4 | 83.0 |
| Missouri | 105.0 | 122.0 | 110.0 | 106.0 | 141.0 | 95.0 | 84.0 |
| Oklahoma | 94.0 | 128.0 | 91.0 | 100.0 | 127.0 | 85.7 | 79.7 |
Note: Percentages may not equal 100 because of rounding to nearest whole number within the report.