The Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index is based on methodology developed by the University of Michigan for its national-level Index of Consumer Sentiment. It is based on five questions that evaluate consumer perceptions about their current and future finances, current and future business conditions, plans to purchase major household items, current level of consumer debt, current and planned savings, and demographic information. Researchers collected these perceptions using telephone and online surveys conducted in August 2016.
| Index | National | Regional | Arkansas | Missouri | Oklahoma |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2014 | 82.5 | 71.4 | 67.4 | 68.6 | 76.4 |
| Fall 2014 | 86.9 | 72.6 | 68.1 | 77.4 | 72.6 |
| Spring 2015 | 93.0* | 83.2 | 79.1 | 85.2 | 84.8 |
| Fall 2015 | 87.2 | 82.6 | 77.8 | 85.8 | 85.0 |
| Spring 2016 | 90.0 | 83.4 | 84.9 | 83.9 | 81.3 |
| Fall 2016 | 89.8 | 85.6 | 86.7 | 88.3 | 82.1 |
*Revised by the University of Michigan
Arkansas
Arkansas consumer sentiment increased moderately from March 2016 to the latest reading in August 2016. Tracking with the improving economic conditions in the state, Arkansans were more confident about their current and future personal finances but held mixed views about future economic conditions. For the second consecutive period, the Arvest Consumer Sentiment reading for Arkansas was higher than that of the overall region. In August 2016, the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index for Arkansas was 86.7, up from 84.9 in March 2016, and higher than the regional reading of 85.6.
Missouri
Missourians are more optimistic about the economy than they were in March 2016. Since June 2014, consumer confidence has grown, driven by changes in consumer confidence between two income groups. Consumers with incomes below $75,000 are growing more confident while higher-income consumers saw confidence peak at 98.3 in March 2015 and slowly decline since then until August 2016. In August 2016, the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index for Missouri was 88.3, up from 83.9 in March 2016, and slightly higher than the regional reading of 85.6.
Oklahoma
Oklahomans reported a slight uptick in confidence despite continuing concern over the severity and duration of the current commodity price cycle depression and its implications for the Oklahoma economy. Their consumer confidence is significantly lower than that of neighboring states, the region and the nation as a whole. In August 2016, the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index for Oklahoma was 82.1, up from 81.3 in March 2016, and lower than the regional reading of 85.6 for the second consecutive time period since the inception of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Index.
Index by Income
| All Families | Families Under $75,000 | Families Over $75,000 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 85.6 | 81.4 | 93.4 |
| Arkansas | 86.7 | 84.3 | 95.6 |
| Missouri | 88.3 | 81.5 | 97.3 |
| Oklahoma | 82.1 | 79.9 | 83.5 |
Index by Age Subgroup
| Ages 18-24 | Ages 25-44 | Ages 45-64 | Ages 65+ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 96.7 | 93.6 | 76.4 | 80.4 |
| Arkansas | 95.5 | 94.4 | 79.1 | 81.5 |
| Missouri | 103.2 | 97.5 | 77.1 | 76.4 |
| Oklahoma | 93.4 | 88.5 | 73.2 | 77.8 |
Index by Educational Attainment
| High School or Less | Bachelor’s Degree | Graduate Degree | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 79.1 | 88.4 | 95.7 |
| Arkansas | 79.7 | 96.9 | 88.2 |
| Missouri | 79.6 | 85.0 | 102.8 |
| Oklahoma | 77.0 | 80.4 | 87.8 |
Index by Presence of Children in the Home
| Children | No Children | |
|---|---|---|
| Regional | 88.4 | 84.3 |
| Arkansas | 92.6 | 93.7 |
| Missouri | 90.7 | 85.2 |
| Oklahoma | 85.5 | 77.2 |
Index by Employment Status
| Employed | Unemployed | Not in Labor Force | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Regional | 88.7 | 82.7 | 80.6 |
| Arkansas | 91.5 | 75.7 | 80.5 |
| Missouri | 91.0 | 92.8 | 77.4 |
| Oklahoma | 84.0 | 85.4 | 73.8 |
Index by Homeownership Status
| Own Home | Rent | |
|---|---|---|
| Regional | 88.2 | 83.5 |
| Arkansas | 85.9 | 86.7 |
| Missouri | 86.2 | 89.2 |
| Oklahoma | 79.3 | 82.0 |