FAYETTEVILLE, Ark. – This section of the Arvest Consumer Sentiment Survey deals with determining the expectations and attitudes of consumers toward current and future personal finances, general business conditions and buying conditions. Data from those questions is tabulated into the Current Conditions Sub-Index and the Consumer Expectations Sub-Index.

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Regional Economic Outlook

Respondents were more positive when asked in August if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index increased from 96.0 in March to 99.0 in August. They were also slightly more optimistic about the expected financial situation in a year, as indicated by an index of 127.0, than when they were asked in March, when the index was 126.0. The survey respondents were more optimistic both about the prospects for general business conditions over the next year and about conditions over the next five years than in March. This optimism is reflected in the index of 102.0 for business conditions in a year and 101.0 for business conditions over the next five years. Respondents remained quite positive about buying conditions in the next six months, as reflected by the index of 136.0. Overall, regional respondents were moderately more optimistic in August about the future economic conditions than they were in March. The current conditions index increased from 90.3 to 91.0 and the consumer expectations index increased from 78.9 to 82.1.

Arkansas

Respondents were more optimistic when asked in August if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index rose from 96.0 in March to 99.0 in August. They were also more optimistic about their expected financial situation in a year than they were in March, indicated by an increase in the index from 128.0 to 131.0. The survey respondents were more positive about general business conditions over the next year and about general business conditions in the next five years. The positive responses are reflected in the August index of 104.0 for business conditions in a year and 98.0 in five years. Respondents remained optimistic about buying conditions in the next six months; the index remained unchanged at 140.0. Overall, Arkansas respondents were more optimistic in August about the future economic conditions than they were in March and they were also more optimistic about their current status. The current conditions index increased to 92.4 in August, while the consumer expectations index increased to 83.0.

Missouri

Respondents were much more optimistic when asked in August if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index increased from 97.0 in March to 105.0 in August. They were, however, less optimistic about their expected financial situation in a year than they were in March, indicated by a decrease in the index from 127.0 to 122.0. Respondents expressed optimism about the outlook for general business conditions over the next year and next five years. This was reflected in the August index reading of 110.0 for business conditions in a year and 106.0 for business conditions over the next five years. Respondents expressed more optimistic sentiment about buying conditions in the next six months as indicated by an index of 141.0. Missouri respondents were more optimistic in August about current conditions and future economic conditions. The current condition index increased to 95.0 and the consumer expectations index increased to 84.0.

Oklahoma

Respondents were less positive when asked in August if their current financial situation was better or worse than their situation a year ago. The index declined from 95.0 in March to 94.0 in August. They were, however, more optimistic about their expected financial situation in a year than they were in March, indicated by an increase in the index from 125.0 to 128.0. Respondents were less optimistic in their sentiment about the outlook for general business conditions over the next year, indicated by an index of 91.0, but much more optimistic about the outlook for the next five years as indicated by an index of 100.0. Respondents were less positive about buying conditions in the next six months as reflected by the index of 127.0. Overall, respondents from Oklahoma were more pessimistic about their current status and more optimistic about future economic conditions in August. The current conditions index decreased to 85.7 while the consumer expectations index increased to 79.7.

Personal Financial Situation Compared with a Year Ago

Better Off Same Worse Off Responses Index Score
Regional 23% 53% 24% 1,292 99.0
Arkansas 23% 53% 24% 450 99.0
Missouri 27% 50% 22% 412 105.0
Oklahoma 19% 56% 25% 430 94.0

Expected Change in Financial Situation in a Year

Better Off Same Worse Off Responses Index Score
Regional 40% 47% 13% 1,203 127.0
Arkansas 42% 46% 12% 422 131.0
Missouri 38% 45% 17% 382 122.0
Oklahoma 40% 48% 12% 399 128.0

Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year

Good Times Uncertain Bad Times Responses Index Score
Regional 32% 37% 30% 1,155 102.0
Arkansas 31% 41% 27% 401 104.0
Missouri 38% 34% 28% 369 110.0
Oklahoma 27% 37% 36% 385 91.0

Expected Change in Business Conditions in 5 Years

Continuous
Good Times
Widespread
Unemployment
Other Responses Index Score
Regional 43% 41% 16% 1,171 101.0
Arkansas 42% 44% 14% 412 98.0
Missouri 44% 38% 18% 384 106.0
Oklahoma 43% 42% 15% 394 100.0

Buying Conditions in Next Six Months

Good Times Mixed –
Good & Bad
Bad Times Responses Index Score
Regional 55% 26% 19% 1,167 136.0
Arkansas 57% 26% 17% 410 140.0
Missouri 58% 24% 17% 381 141.0
Oklahoma 49% 29% 22% 397 127.0

 

Personal Finances
Sub Index
Business Conditions
Sub Index
Buying
Conditions
Sub Index
Current
Conditions
Sub Index
Consumer
Expectations
Sub Index
Spring 2016 Current Expected 12 Months 5 Years
Regional 99.0 127.0 102.0 101.0 136.0 91.0 82.1
Arkansas 99.0 131.0 104.0 98.0 140.0 92.4 83.0
Missouri 105.0 122.0 110.0 106.0 141.0 95.0 84.0
Oklahoma 94.0 128.0 91.0 100.0 127.0 85.7 79.7

 

Note: Percentages may not equal 100 because of rounding to nearest whole number within the report.